Trump's Promises

Details & Sources

Trump claimed, "[m]y goal will be to cut your energy costs in half within 12 months after taking office..." In many of rallies he expanded on this, indicating that it also applied to gas costs and that "your energy prices will be cut in half within 12 months from January 20th, which is when we would take over." He indicated that "we can do it...most countries can't even think about that...we can do it 'cause we have it right under our feet." This provides a clear target and timeline for a first goal.

Source(s)

• • • "Trump vows to halve energy costs in 12 months. Few see that happening." (NBC)

    • "Trump Rails Against 'Green New Scam', Promises To Cut Energy Prices In Half Within One Year" (Forbes Breaking News on YouTube)

    • Current average electricity cost per kWh: $0.176 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) 

The statement about energy costs corresponds to another reference about gas prices: "[w]e’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares and housing costs..." Given his claim regarding cutting energy costs in half after one year in office, the national average for all gasoline grades should be cut in half as well by that same date.

Source(s)

• • • "Trump Is Making Promises That Many Economists Call Unrealistic" (The New York Times)

    • Current average cost per gallon (all grades): $3.277 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

On his own campaign website, Trump set a clear "national goal of ensuring that America has the number one lowest cost of energy of any industrial country anywhere on Earth." Nations that fit within the traditional definition of "industrial countries" are the 38 members of the OECD. As there no clear timeline was indicated, it will be assumed that he will achieve this goal by the end of his term in office solely in relation to the OECD members rather than all countries. As only 11 OECD member countries currently have lower energy costs than the United States (Costa Rica, Israel, Chile, Norway, Iceland, South Korea, Canada, Hungary, Mexico, and Turkey), this should be an easy goal to achieve based on his claims regarding his administration's ability to "unleash" domestic energy production.

Source(s)

• • • "Agenda47: America Must Have the #1 Lowest Cost Energy and Electricity on Earth" (DonaldJTrump.com)

    • "President Donald J. Trump Has Unleashed American Producers and Restored Our Energy Dominance" (White House Archives)

    • Current U.S. ranking (among OECD members) for lowest energy cost: 11th (World Population Review)

Details & Sources

Throughout his first term Trump claimed that he would eliminate the national debt entirely if he could serve two full terms. In his four years he instead added $7.8 trillion to it. He has made far fewer claims in 2024, and a full comparison of the estimated financial impact of the campaign promises of both Trump and Harris suggested that an additional $7.75 trillion would be added to the federal debt from his proposals versus $3.95 trillion from hers. Though Trump has denied this, he has not put forward any information to contradict the claim and suggested that his tariffs and government cuts will result in a balanced budget. He further put forward surrogates like Elon Musk who claim that up to $2 trillion in spending could be eliminated. This would effectively keep the national debt at its current level over his four-year term. Despite these claims, though, we will give him the benefit of the doubt and create some leeway by applying the lowest estimate of the impact of his proposals: $1.95 trillion over his four-year term. Should he exceed the total of the existing debt plus the additional $1.95 trillion (minus any spending directly resulting from programs already approved by the Biden administration), this promise will be considered broken.

Source(s)

• • • "Fact Check: Did Donald Trump Promise to Eliminate National Debt?" (Newsweek)

    • "The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans" (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

    • "Under fire, Trump contends economic policies won't boost federal debt" (Reuters)

    • "Musk says he can cut $2 trillion from budget at Trump rally" (Fortune)

    • "What is the national debt?" (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data)

    • Current federal debt: $36.38 trillion (Source: USDebtClock.org) 

Details & Sources

Trump hasn't clearly stated how he will lower grocery prices, nor has he specified a specific target in terms of the reductions. However, he clearly claimed that "...when I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One." On Thursday, December 12th (following his election win), he once again claimed that food prices would be lower "very soon," implying it would happen once he entered office: "They’re going to be affording their groceries very soon." In short, throughout his campaign he clearly stated that "[w]e’ll get them (prices) down."

However, his most clearly articulated statement tied the issue to the agricultural trade deficit: "...one of the reasons is we allow a lot of farm product into our country. We’re gonna have to be a little bit like other countries. We’re not gonna allow so much come — we’re gonna let our farmers go to work...you're gonna suffer for six months and then they're gonna fold." This both provides a loose timeline and implies that food prices will drop by an unspecified amount after that point. 

Despite his assertions that he would lower prices on "day one," we will therefore be generous in allowing a one-year period. This target focuses solely on the price of several of grocery staples, including top imports. (The agricultural trade deficit itself can be found in the Trade section.) We will assume that even a 25% reduction in current prices (based on nationwide city averages) by the end of 2025 will be considered successful given that Trump frequently claims that food costs "50% more than it did just a few years ago" or even "50, 60, 70, and 80% higher than they were just a few years ago."

Source(s)

• • • "Former President Donald Trump full press conference on the economy (Aug. 15, 2024)" (WFAA on YouTube)

    • "Food prices worried most voters, but Trump’s plans likely won’t lower their grocery bills" (AP)

    • "WATCH: Trump, Sarah Huckabee Sanders hold town hall in Michigan" (LiveNOW from FOX on YouTube)

    • "Major newspapers and newswires ignored a Trump idea guaranteed to raise food prices"

    • "Top U.S. Food Imports by Origin Country" (Visual Capitalist)

    • "Donald Trump Speaks at National Rifle Association Gathering" (C-SPAN)

    • "READ: Harris-Trump presidential debate transcript" (ABC)

    • Current prices and targets for major staples in dollars per pound (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

      • • Flour (white): 0.548 (Target: 0.411)

        • Rice (white): 1.032 (Target: 0.774)

        • Bread (white/wheat): 1.912/2.796 (Target: 1.434/2.097)

        • Ground beef (uncooked, all types): 5.863 (Target: 4.397)

        • Bacon: 6.915 (Target: 5.186)

        • Chicken breast (boneless): 4.104 (Target: 3.078)

        • Eggs: 4.146 (Target: 3.11)

        • Milk (whole): 4.101 (Target: 3.076)

        • Bananas: 0.615 (Target: 0.461)

        • Oranges: 1.564 (Target: 1.173)

        • Potatoes: 0.949 (Target: 0.712)

        • Lettuce (iceberg): 1.705 (Target: 1.279)

        • Tomatoes (field grown): 2.067 (Target: 1.550)

        • Sugar: 0.992 (Target: 0.744)

        • Coffee: 6.776 (Target: 5.082)

Details & Sources

The 2024 GOP platform document states that several steps will be taken to reduce home mortgage rates: "...slashing Inflation, open limited portions of Federal Lands to allow for new home construction, promote homeownership through Tax Incentives and support for first-time buyers, and cut unnecessary Regulations that raise housing costs." In a Tuscon, Arizona rally Trump claimed that current interest rates are between 10 to 12% and pledged that "we will drive down the rates so you will be able to pay 2% again, and we will be able to finance or refinance drastically at much lower costs." He confirmed a similar figure in another speech: “Reducing mortgage rates is a big factor. We’re going to get them back down to, we think, 3%, maybe even lower than that, saving the average homebuyer thousands of dollars per year.” To give Trump the benefit of the doubt, we will assume the higher figure of 3% and a full year to achieve this.

Source(s)

• • • "The 2024 Republican Platform" (GOP.com)

    • "WATCH LIVE: Trump appears at campaign rally in Tucson, Arizona, first since debate with Harris" (PBS NewsHour on YouTube)

    • "Donald Trump Will Return to the White House: What His Presidency Means for the Housing Market" (Realtor.com)

    • Current national rate average for 30-year fixed mortgage: 7.11% (Bankrate.com) 

Trump has not provided any clear explanation of his policy proposals for reducing costs for renters, instead referring to an overall strategy of driving down energy costs that he claims will accomplish this. It will therefore be assumed that a modest decrease of 15% represents a likely outcome should his claims of "drastic" drops in costs prove true due to the the knock-on effects of his energy policy. As he gave a one-year timeline for that achievement, the same will be applied for average rent costs.

Source(s)

• • • "Where the Harris, Trump Campaigns Stand on Housing" (Shelterforce)

    • Current monthly average cost of rent: Median: $1,326 / High: $1,868 / Low: $831 (World Population Review)

Details & Sources

Though Trump has regularly criticized the Biden administration for high inflation and tied it to several areas such as energy production and business regulation, he has not specified a target inflation rate. He instead generalizes his intentions. On August 14, 2024, Trump spoke in Asheville, North Carolina, a speech intended to articulate his economic platform and explain his plan for reducing inflation. The most relevant portion of that speech mentioned it several times:

"Now this is a little bit different day, because this isn't about...this is...we're talking about a thing called the economy. They wanted to do a speech on the economy. A lot of people are very devastated by what's happened with inflation and all of the other things, so we're doing this as a intellectual speech. You're all intellectuals today. Today we're doing it and we're doing it, uh, right now, and it's, uh, very important. They say it's the most important subject... But from today and from the day I take the oath of office, we will rapidly drive prices down and make America affordable again. We're gonna make it affordable again... They say it's the most important subject. I'm not sure it is, but they say it's the most important sort...inflation is the most important, but that's part of economy."

That didn't provide much clarity, so we must turn to another claim: “If we can maintain this for the next 100 years, between 1 and 2 percent, we would be at a 1.4 percent average. We're going to tackle inflation quickly and bring prices down substantially and rapidly and make America affordable again." This implies that his policies will keep inflation below the benchmark 2%. However, we'll be even more generous. Given that the current inflation rate is below 3% and that Trump insists that his policies will keep inflation low, it should be reasonable for him to simply be able to maintain it at that level or even slightly higher throughout his term. This is further reinforced by the fact that he claims his policies were directly responsible for inflation remaining below 3% during his entire first term in office. That should make repeating the same goal easy. At any point at which the rate exceeds 3.0%, this promise will be considered broken.

Source(s)

• • • "FULL REMARKS: President Trump's Plan To Defeat Inflation in Asheville, NC" (Donald J. Trump on YouTube)

    • "Trump’s economic plan promises to ‘defeat’ inflation but leaves out policy, budget specifics" (PBS)

    • "TRUMP: WE ARE GOING TO MAKE AMERICAN AFFORDABLE AGAIN" (Mario Nawfal on X)

    • Most recent inflation rate: 2.7% (Statista)

Details & Sources

Trump made a very clear statement on his website regarding his commitment to protecting social security: "[u]nder no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security." This is a simple promise and an easy win for him should he simply maintain the status quo.

Source(s)

• • • "We Must Protect Medicare and Social Security" (DonaldJTrump.com)

Details & Sources

Trump made numerous commitments to tax changes across a range of areas throughout his campaign, many of which are directly cited in the 2024 Republican Platform as well. That includes cuts not only to corporate and individual rates, but also the introduction to a wide range of credits and deductions, and even . The ones that naturally matter most to voters are those that will have a direct impact on our finances. Ignoring all of the others, if Trump can succeed in even implementing the following changes by the end of his first year, that will be considered meeting his promise.

• • • Exempt social security benefits from taxation

    • Exempt tip income from taxation

    • Exempt overtime pay from taxation

    • Create a deduction for auto loan interest

    • Create a tax credit for family caregivers

    • Make the expiring individual tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent

    • Reinstate SALT or discontinue the cap

Source(s)

• • • "Where Do the Candidates Stand on Taxes?" (Tax Foundation)

    • "The 2024 Republican Platform" (GOP.com)

Details & Sources

Trump promised a baseline 10% tariff on all imports and the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, imposing an equal tariff on any tariff other countries place on U.S. goods. He claimed that this will reduce America’s trade deficit while also encouraging companies to shift to domestic manufacturing and production rather than offshoring. Following the election he claimed that on January 20th, 2025 he "will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States." He further stated that "we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs." This provides a clear timeline for at least some of the tariffs, as well as the amount.

No other specific targets or timeline have been associated with this, so generous targets will be provided in terms of impact. First, he simply needs to match or improve on the worst trade deficit in his previous term, not the best. Second, given his criticism of the Biden and Obama administrations in respect to their economic policy, he can prove his approach to be superior by restoring domestic manufacturing output as a percentage of the GDP to its last pre-Obama level. Moreover, neither goal has to be achieved until the end of his four-year term, meaning he will have plenty of time for his policies to take effect.

Source(s)

• • • Donald Trump on Truth Social

    • Donald Trump on Truth Social

    • "Trade in Goods with World, Seasonally Adjusted" (Census.gov)

    • "12-Month Percent Change: Average hourly earnings of all employees" (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

    • Trade deficit in 2020 (in millions): -901,481.8 (Census.gov)

    • Domestic manufacturing output as a % of GDP (2008): 12% (Macrotrends)

As already indicated in the Food & Grocery section, Trump indicated that agricultural trade deficit served as one of the primary causes of high food costs throughout the past three years: "...one of the reasons is we allow a lot of farm product into our country. We’re gonna have to be a little bit like other countries. We’re not gonna allow so much come — we’re gonna let our farmers go to work...you're gonna suffer for six months and then they're gonna fold." That deficit will far exceed $30 billion in 2024, a gap that Trump claims is the result of the Biden administration's policies. As he indicated in his statement, the success of his tariffs on agricultural imports will be signaled by two points: other countries dropping any retaliatory tariffs they imposed within six months and any subsequent reduction in the trade deficit. This goal will only be counted should retaliatory tariffs be imposed by other countries, and if they drop them within six months.

Source(s)

• • • "WATCH: Trump, Sarah Huckabee Sanders hold town hall in Michigan" (LiveNOW from FOX on YouTube)

    • "US Ag Trade Deficit Widens to $32 Billion" (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Farm Policy News)

    • Current agricultural trade balance (calendar YTD): -33.785 (USDA Economic Research Service)

Details & Sources

While his position on abortion has varied throughout the past decades (and for most of his life), Trump clearly committed to vetoing any bill that proposes a national abortion ban. His statements on this included a post on X in which he wrote, "I WOULD NOT SUPPORT A FEDERAL ABORTION BAN, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, AND WOULD, IN FACT, VETO IT." 

* As this promise is contingent on Congress actually proposing any such bill, it will not count toward the grade unless Congress does so.

Details & Sources

Despite his prior opposition to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), commonly referred to as Obamacare, Trump claimed in a Truth Social post on October 31, 2024 that he "never mentioned doing that, never even thought about such a thing." Earlier in 2024, in another Truth Social video posted on April 11, Trump clearly articulated that he was "not running to terminate the ACA" and would "make the ACA, or Obamacare as it's sometimes known, much better, stronger, and far less expensive." While he didn't provide a specific percentage as a goal, "far less expensive" implies a significant one. Nevertheless, we will posit only a modest 25% reduction of the 2024 nationwide average cost for plans in each tier. (Note that the prices have risen for 2025, so basing this on a percentage reduction from 2024 actually helps Trump even more, as the reductions don't need to be as large.) These figures reflect the base amounts before any subsidies or tax credit reductions.

• • Average bronze premium: $381

  • Average silver premium: $486

  • Average gold premium: $497

  • Average platinum premium: $507

Source(s)

• • Donald J. Trump on Truth Social (October 31, 2024)

  • Donald J. Trump on Truth Social (April 11, 2024)

  • "Trump, Who Tried to Repeal Obamacare, Says He Is ‘Not Running to Terminate’ It" (The New York Times)

  • "Average Marketplace Premiums by Metal Tier, 2018-2025" (KFF)

Details & Sources

Note that I don't necessarily agree with each of these proposals, but they're included here since he repeatedly promised to make them a priority.

Arguably the centerpiece of his campaign, Trump has repeatedly stated that on his "very first day back in the White House" he "will terminate every single open border policy of the Biden-Harris administration, and we will seal the border" by initiating mass deportation. Given the resources and challenges associated with the latter, it can be safely assumed that he may need more time to accomplish this. He further claimed that he will issue an executive order on his first day to "end birthright citizenship" for the children of illegal immigrants. Finally, he seeks to bring back his "remain in Mexico" policy, though this doesn't have a specific timeline associated with it. Each of these four promises will be considered separate given the incongruent timelines. If any of Trump's actions are blocked by courts for violations of law, including Title 8, that will not be accepted as an excuse for failing to meet the promises, as the responsibility of the executive branch is to enforce existing laws rather than make laws.

Source(s)

• • "24 things Donald Trump is promising to do" (PBS)

  • "Trump pledges to end birthright citizenship on first day in office" (The Hill)

  • "Trump has big plans for ‘day one’ on immigration, energy and more" (The Hill)

Details & Sources

Given the lack of clarity regarding Trump's proposed actions in regard to conflicts, his words are again taken at face value where possible and extrapolated reasonably based on his apparent meaning.

Trump told President Netanyahu could "do what you have to do" and that Israel should "finish the job" while also indicating that "[w]e want our hostages back, and they better be back before I assume office, or you will be paying a very big price." In a leaked recording, Netanyahu stated that he "cannot agree to Hamas’s demand to end the war in exchange for the 101 hostages it still holds." This suggests that Trump believes that he can resolve the conflict by the time he enters office by virtue of winning the election, but if it has not been resolved, he'll quickly take action. We can safely assume a period of one month should the latter prove true.

Source(s)

• "Trump claims Netanyahu disregarded Biden’s advice on war, was right to do so" (The Times of Israel)

• "Trump: Those holding US hostages will pay if they’re not freed by time I return to office" (The Times of Israel)

• "Trump claims Netanyahu disregarded Biden’s advice on war, was right to do so" (The Times of Israel)

Trump also promised to end the Ukraine-Russia War before even entering office: "That is a war that’s dying to be settled. I will get it settled before I even become president...if I win, when I’m president-elect and what I’ll do is I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other, I’ll get them together." In another rally he made a similar claim, stating that "I will get that war settled as president-elect."

Source(s)

• "WATCH: Trump promises to ‘settle’ war in Ukraine if elected" (PBS)

• "WATCH LIVE: Trump appears at campaign rally in Tucson, Arizona, first since debate with Harris" (PBS NewsHour on YouTube)

Another frequent claim from Trump is that "THE HORRIBLE ATTACK ON ISRAEL, MUCH LIKE THE ATTACK ON UKRAINE, WOULD NEVER HAVE HAPPENED IF I WERE PRESIDENT - ZERO CHANCE!" and that "I had no wars. I’m the only president in 72 years… I didn’t have any wars." He further touts his approach as a preventative strategy: "I will restore peace through strength." All of these statements can be reasonably extrapolated for one final promise: that once again no new significant global conflicts will occur during his second term, and American troops will not be sent into any new combat zones. This should be a reasonable benchmark given his claimed record on the issue.

Source(s)

• Donald J. Trump on Truth Social

• MAGA War Room on X

An excuse of "Trump has no control over what happens in other countries" is unacceptable. That same defense was ignored when applied to Biden's administration, and it will therefore offer the same level of protection for Trump: none whatsoever.